Nigeria’s Economic Outlook Improves as Fitch Joins S&P, Moody’s in Positive Assessment
Nigeria has recorded another positive assessment of its economic reform programme after Fitch Ratings revised the country’s outlook to Positive from Stable, while retaining its Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at ‘B’.
The decision, announced on October 9, 2026, makes Fitch the latest major international rating agency to take a positive rating action on Nigeria this year.
The Federal Government said the development reflects growing confidence in the country’s economic reforms, improved foreign exchange reserves, declining inflation and stronger external balances.
In a statement signed by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, the government said the latest decision reinforces the progress recorded under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.
Fitch identified increased flexibility in the naira, easing inflation and faster-than-expected accumulation of foreign exchange reserves as major factors behind its decision.
Nigeria’s gross reserves rose to $54.9 billion on September 25, 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.
The improvement was supported by stronger portfolio inflows, increased export receipts, higher remittances and the formalisation of foreign exchange transactions.
Fitch also projected Nigeria’s current account surplus at 6.4 per cent of GDP in 2026, indicating improved external financial conditions.
The agency expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from 4 per cent in 2025, with growth projected to remain above 4 per cent in the following two years.
According to the assessment, non-oil economic activities are expected to remain the major drivers of growth.
The agency also noted that crude oil production has met Nigeria’s OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while increasing domestic refining capacity is reducing the need for imported petroleum products.
Average inflation is projected to fall to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.
Fitch further expects tax reforms to improve government revenue generation, particularly from non-oil sources.
It projected general government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, compared with the ‘B’ category median of 56 per cent.
The agency also recognised the strength of Nigeria’s domestic debt market and improvements in the banking sector following the recapitalisation exercise.
Oyedele said Fitch’s decision followed other positive developments in Nigeria’s international financial standing.
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ in May 2026, while Moody’s Ratings revised the country’s outlook to Positive in August.
Additionally, FTSE Russell restored Nigeria to Frontier Market status with effect from September 21, 2026.
The minister said the developments demonstrate increasing confidence in the direction of Nigeria’s economic reforms.
He said the government remained committed to sustaining the reforms, including the removal of the fuel subsidy, exchange rate unification and the implementation of new tax laws.
According to him, the administration’s ultimate objective is to reduce the cost of capital, attract private investment, create jobs and place Nigeria on a path towards investment-grade status.
However, the government acknowledged that inflation remains relatively high compared with peer countries, while public revenue remains low and debt-servicing costs continue to consume a significant share of government earnings.
Oyedele said the administration would continue to address these challenges through improved tax administration, fiscal discipline, transparent debt management and policies that support non-oil growth.
He added that the government would prioritise food security, human development, decent jobs and support for small businesses to ensure that economic improvements translate into better living conditions for Nigerians.
